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Economics prediction markets

Rates, inflation, employment and growth, by official release.

What economics prediction markets are

Economics prediction markets are contracts on official economic numbers and central bank decisions. This board is built from Kalshi's Economics category. Kalshi's Fed meeting series is one example [11].

What kinds of economics markets are there?

Examples include Federal Reserve rate decisions and monthly inflation readings. Each contract is tied to one meeting or one official release.

Kalshi's Fed decision contracts ask what the Federal Open Market Committee does at a named meeting [1]. Its CPI contracts ask about the monthly change in the Consumer Price Index [5].

Reading a price of 36 cents

A Yes price of 36 cents implies about a 36% chance of that outcome. A correct Yes contract pays $1.00 at settlement.

Kalshi says a Yes price of p cents implies about a p% probability [8]. A Fed decision contract settles at $1.00 [3].

How these markets settle

Each contract settles on one official source, named in Kalshi's rules for that contract.

How does a Fed rate decision market settle?

A Fed decision market settles on the action the Federal Open Market Committee takes at the named meeting: a hike, a cut or no change.

The source agency is the Federal Reserve System [1]. If the Fed cancels the meeting, the "No change" contract resolves Yes and the others resolve No [2].

How does a CPI market settle?

A Kalshi CPI market settles on the one-month change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index, as first published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The contract reads the CPI-U change the BLS publishes, and later revisions do not count [5].

Which venues list them

Every market on this board comes from Kalshi. For its fees and quirks, see our notes on prediction market platforms.

Kalshi only on this board

The economics board is built from Kalshi's own Economics category. Other venues are not read here, so their prices do not appear.

What moves the price

The BLS publishes CPI data at 8:30am ET [6]. The Fed releases its statement at 2:00 PM ET on the last day of a meeting [4].

What makes an economics price change?

New data moves it. Kalshi names new economic data and breaking news as things that change what a contract is worth.

Kalshi lists new economic data and breaking news stories as information that changes a contract's fair value [9]. When more traders expect Yes, the Yes price rises and the No price falls [10].

How often does the Fed meet?

The Federal Open Market Committee holds eight regularly scheduled meetings a year. It can also hold other meetings as needed.

The Federal Reserve publishes the schedule [7]. Its 2026 calendar lists meetings on October 27-28 and December 8-9 [7].

Sources (11)
  1. Kalshi Fed decision contracts settle on the FOMC's action at a named meeting; the source agency is the Federal Reserve System. assets.kalshi.com/contract_terms/FEDDECISION.pdf (checked 2026-09-25)
  2. If the meeting is cancelled, 'No change' resolves Yes and the rest resolve No. assets.kalshi.com/contract_terms/FEDDECISION.pdf (checked 2026-09-25)
  3. Fed decision contracts settle at $1.00. assets.kalshi.com/contract_terms/FEDDECISION.pdf (checked 2026-09-25)
  4. Fed statements are released at 2:00 PM ET on a meeting's last day. assets.kalshi.com/contract_terms/FED.pdf (checked 2026-09-25)
  5. Kalshi CPI contracts settle on the BLS one-month seasonally adjusted CPI-U change; later revisions do not count. assets.kalshi.com/contract_terms/CPI.pdf (checked 2026-09-25)
  6. CPI data is released at 8:30am ET. assets.kalshi.com/contract_terms/CPI.pdf (checked 2026-09-25)
  7. The FOMC holds eight regularly scheduled meetings a year; the 2026 calendar lists October 27-28 and December 8-9. www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm (checked 2026-09-25)
  8. A Yes price of p cents implies about a p% probability. news.kalshi.com/p/how-to-read-probabilities (checked 2026-09-25)
  9. New economic data and breaking news change a contract's fair value. news.kalshi.com/p/how-to-read-probabilities (checked 2026-09-25)
  10. When the perceived likelihood of Yes rises, the Yes price rises and the No price falls. help.kalshi.com/en/articles/13823836-how-are-prices-determined (checked 2026-09-25)
  11. Kalshi files Fed decision markets under its Economics category. api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/series/KXFEDDECISION (checked 2026-09-25)

More on: prediction market arbitrage

See also: financial prediction markets, election prediction markets, entertainment prediction markets

Related: prediction market platforms

LIVE124 markets across 60 series 

From Kalshi’s 763 Economics series. This is the family that holds up best when checked against a second venue, because a discrete announcement by one committee leaves little room for two rulebooks to disagree about what happened.

Will CPI rise more than 0.5% in September 2026?

  • Will CPI rise more than 0.5% in September 2026?63¢597,306 vol
  • Will CPI rise more than 0.6% in September 2026?15¢273,979 vol
  • Will CPI rise more than 0.4% in September 2026?92¢269,602 vol
  • Will CPI rise more than 0.2% in September 2026?no offer63,287 vol
  • Will CPI rise more than 0.7% in September 2026?1¢58,120 vol
  • Will CPI rise more than 0.3% in September 2026?98¢44,220 vol
  • Will CPI rise more than 0.8% in September 2026?1¢38,939 vol
  • Will CPI rise more than 0.0% in October 2026?90¢27,523 vol
  • Will CPI rise more than -0.1% in October 2026?96¢18,954 vol
  • Will CPI rise more than 0.2% in October 2026?58¢16,518 vol
  • Will CPI rise more than 0.1% in September 2026?no offer15,909 vol
  • Will CPI rise more than -0.2% in September 2026?no offer14,462 vol

Will above 30000 jobs be added in October 2026?

  • Will above 30000 jobs be added in October 2026?67¢27,336 vol
  • Will above 70000 jobs be added in October 2026?55¢22,112 vol
  • Will above 50000 jobs be added in October 2026?60¢18,467 vol
  • Will above 80000 jobs be added in October 2026?51¢14,938 vol
  • Will above 40000 jobs be added in October 2026?69¢11,453 vol
  • Will above 20000 jobs be added in October 2026?78¢11,399 vol
  • Will above 0 jobs be added in October 2026?89¢4,419 vol
  • Will above -25000 jobs be added in October 2026?94¢3,896 vol
  • Will above 125000 jobs be added in October 2026?14¢2,522 vol
  • Will above 100000 jobs be added in October 2026?28¢2,412 vol
  • Will above 60000 jobs be added in October 2026?60¢1,712 vol
  • Will above 125000 jobs be added in November 2026?24¢1,624 vol

Will the Central Bank of Chile hike 1-25bps at the October Monet

  • Will the Central Bank of Chile hike 1-25bps at the October Monetary Policy Meeting?5¢12,931 vol
  • Will the Central Bank of Chile hike more than 25bps at the October Monetary Policy Meeting?4¢8,218 vol
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  • Will the Central Bank of Chile cut 1-25bps at the October Monetary Policy Meeting?8¢1,281 vol
  • Will the Central Bank of Chile cut more than 25bps at the October Monetary Policy Meeting?2¢983 vol

Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand Maintain current rate at th

  • Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand Maintain current rate at the October Monetary Policy Review meeting?46¢6,290 vol
  • Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand Hike 1-25bps at the October Monetary Policy Review meeting?56¢3,771 vol
  • Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand Hike more than 25bps at the October Monetary Policy Review meeting?9¢993 vol
  • Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand Cut more than 25bps at the October Monetary Policy Review meeting?1¢105 vol
  • Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand Cut 1-25bps at the October Monetary Policy Review meeting?1¢105 vol

Will government spending increase by 500000000000 before 2027?

  • Will government spending increase by 500000000000 before 2027?29¢3,450 vol
  • Will government spending increase by 400000000000 before 2027?85¢3,156 vol
  • Will government spending increase by 300000000000 before 2027?99¢1,501 vol
  • Will government spending increase by 750000000000 before 2027?14¢1,432 vol
  • Will government spending increase by 200000000000 before 2027?99¢817 vol
  • Will government spending increase by 1000000000000 before 2027?10¢582 vol
  • Will government spending increase by 1000000000 before 2027?100¢62 vol
  • Will government spending increase by 50000000000 before 2027?100¢36 vol
  • Will government spending increase by 100000000000 before 2027?100¢28 vol

How many oil rigs will the US have at the end of the year?

  • How many oil rigs will the US have at the end of the year?85¢6,756 vol
  • How many oil rigs will the US have at the end of the year?6¢1,000 vol
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  • How many oil rigs will the US have at the end of the year?90¢350 vol
  • How many oil rigs will the US have at the end of the year?99¢240 vol
  • How many oil rigs will the US have at the end of the year?63¢78 vol
  • How many oil rigs will the US have at the end of the year?94¢71 vol
  • How many oil rigs will the US have at the end of the year?74¢65 vol
  • How many oil rigs will the US have at the end of the year?99¢6 vol
  • How many oil rigs will the US have at the end of the year?24¢4 vol
  • How many oil rigs will the US have at the end of the year?5¢1 vol
  • How many oil rigs will the US have at the end of the year?99¢1 vol

Will the annual average credit-intermediation employment level f

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Will Oregon's employment in Semiconductor and Other Electronic C

  • Will Oregon's employment in Semiconductor and Other Electronic Component Manufacturing for December 2026 be above 26,400 jobs?17¢5,553 vol

Will the average U.S. price of a Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme fo

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  • Will the average U.S. price of a Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme for October 2026 be at least $6.74?28¢0 vol

Will U.S. imports of goods from China for 2026 be below $240 bil

  • Will U.S. imports of goods from China for 2026 be below $240 billion?7¢1,635 vol
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  • Will U.S. imports of goods from China for 2026 be below $260 billion?38¢386 vol
  • Will U.S. imports of goods from China for 2026 be below $220 billion?6¢314 vol