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Companies prediction markets

Earnings, launches, acquisitions and leadership.

What companies prediction markets are

Companies prediction markets let you trade on business events, such as reported numbers and leadership changes. On Kalshi, each contract is worth $1 if you are right [1].

Kalshi is an exchange regulated by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a Designated Contract Market [2]. Its Companies category includes Netflix subscriber counts [3], Wendy's annual metrics [4] and departures from Meta [5].

What does a companies contract pay?

Each contract pays $1 if your side is right. The price you pay reflects how likely traders think the outcome is.

In Kalshi's own example, a 70% chance means Yes costs 70 cents and No costs 30 cents [6].

How these markets settle

Every Kalshi market has its own rules, and those rules name the source that verifies the outcome [7]. For reported numbers, the company's own report is the main source [8].

Which source settles a reported-number market?

The company's own report. Kalshi's annual KPI contracts settle on the figure the company officially reports in its earnings release, call, presentation or filings.

The named sources also include the company's investor relations website, federal financial regulators, and outlets such as Reuters and Bloomberg News [8].

How does a Netflix subscriber market settle?

A Netflix subscriber market settles on the change in global paid memberships Netflix reports for the quarter. Netflix is the only named source agency.

The contract names Netflix as its source agency [9].

How does a leadership-change market settle?

On an official announcement by the company or the person, or a report from a named news outlet, that the person left before the date.

Named sources include SEC filings and outlets such as Reuters [10]. If the company stops existing as a legal entity before the date, the market resolves Yes [10].

Which venues list them

On this board, companies markets come from Kalshi only, ranked by traded volume. Each price is the Yes ask, the lowest price a seller will accept [11]. Our notes on prediction market platforms explain how we read Kalshi data.

What moves the price

Kalshi says its prices change with trader confidence and public information [12].

What moves a reported-number market?

New public information about the company can move the price. Kalshi's Netflix subscriber markets stop trading at the first 10:00 AM ET after release.

Trading ends at the first 10:00 AM ET after Netflix releases the number, or on a set date if that comes sooner [9].

Is the price a forecast?

No. Kalshi says its price graphs show what traders believe together, not fixed probabilities. The price is what one venue charges today.

Kalshi calls its prices consensus beliefs, not absolute probabilities [12].

Sources (12)
  1. A Kalshi contract is worth $1 if you are right. help.kalshi.com/en/articles/13823766-what-are-prediction-markets (checked 2026-09-25)
  2. Kalshi is regulated by the CFTC as a Designated Contract Market. help.kalshi.com/en/articles/13823765-how-is-kalshi-regulated (checked 2026-09-25)
  3. Kalshi lists a Netflix subscribers series in its Companies category. api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/series/NETFLIXSUBS (checked 2026-09-25)
  4. Kalshi lists a Wendy's Annual KPI series in its Companies category. api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/series/KXWENA (checked 2026-09-25)
  5. Kalshi lists a 'Who will leave Meta' series in its Companies category. api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/series/KXLEAVEMETA (checked 2026-09-25)
  6. Kalshi ties the Yes price to the market's view of the odds; at 70% Yes costs 70 cents and No 30 cents. help.kalshi.com/en/articles/13823836-how-are-prices-determined (checked 2026-09-25)
  7. Each Kalshi market has its own rules, including the outcome verification source. help.kalshi.com/en/articles/13823822-market-rules (checked 2026-09-25)
  8. Kalshi annual KPI contracts settle on the metric as officially reported by the company in its earnings release, call, investor presentation or government filings; source agencies include the company, its IR site, federal financial regulators, Reuters, Bloomberg News; post-expiration revisions not counted. assets.kalshi.com/contract_terms/ANNUALKPI.pdf (checked 2026-09-25)
  9. Kalshi Netflix subscriber contracts settle on the change in global paid memberships reported by Netflix (sole source agency); last trading is the sooner of the first 10:00 AM ET after release or a set date. assets.kalshi.com/contract_terms/NFLXSUBS.pdf (checked 2026-09-25)
  10. Kalshi leave-company contracts settle on an official announcement or confirmation by the company, the person, or authoritative news sources; sources include SEC filings, Reuters, WSJ; resolves Yes if the company ceases to exist. assets.kalshi.com/contract_terms/LEAVECOMPANY.pdf (checked 2026-09-25)
  11. An ask is the minimum price a member is willing to sell a contract for. help.kalshi.com/en/articles/13823828-the-orderbook (checked 2026-09-25)
  12. Kalshi price graphs change with trader confidence and public information; they are consensus beliefs, not absolute probabilities. help.kalshi.com/en/articles/13823830-price-graph (checked 2026-09-25)

More on: prediction market arbitrage

See also: crypto prediction markets, sports prediction markets, oil prediction markets

Related: prediction market platforms

LIVE134 markets across 60 series 

From Kalshi’s 176 Companies series, ranked by traded volume.

Will Robinhood Markets Inc. report Above 30.2 million funded cus

  • Will Robinhood Markets Inc. report Above 30.2 million funded customers in 2026?27¢25,064 vol
  • Will Robinhood Markets Inc. report Above $65 billion event contracts total trading volume in fiscal 2026?17¢18,378 vol
  • Will Robinhood Markets Inc. report Above 30 million funded customers in 2026?30¢17,455 vol
  • Will Robinhood Markets Inc. report Above 28.2 million funded customers in 2026?no offer16,735 vol
  • Will Robinhood Markets Inc. report Above 29.8 million funded customers in 2026?36¢16,656 vol
  • Will Robinhood Markets Inc. report Above 28.4 million funded customers in 2026?no offer16,095 vol
  • Will Robinhood Markets Inc. report Above $75 billion event contracts total trading volume in fiscal 2026?7¢15,750 vol
  • Will Robinhood Markets Inc. report Above $70 billion event contracts total trading volume in fiscal 2026?11¢14,869 vol
  • Will Robinhood Markets Inc. report Above $80 billion event contracts total trading volume in fiscal 2026?5¢14,312 vol
  • Will Robinhood Markets Inc. report Above $60 billion event contracts total trading volume in fiscal 2026?62¢14,153 vol
  • Will Robinhood Markets Inc. report Above 29 million funded customers in 2026?79¢13,611 vol
  • Will Robinhood Markets Inc. report Above $50 billion event contracts total trading volume in fiscal 2026?97¢12,432 vol

Will Rock and Roll Hall of Fame and Museum, Inc. complete The Ro

  • Will Rock and Roll Hall of Fame and Museum, Inc. complete The Rock & Roll Hall of Fame’s 50,000-square-foot museum expansion in Cleveland, Ohio before Jan 1, 2027?77¢17,792 vol
  • Will Rock and Roll Hall of Fame and Museum, Inc. complete The Rock & Roll Hall of Fame’s 50,000-square-foot museum expansion in Cleveland, Ohio before Feb 1, 2027?77¢14,192 vol
  • Will Rock and Roll Hall of Fame and Museum, Inc. complete The Rock & Roll Hall of Fame’s 50,000-square-foot museum expansion in Cleveland, Ohio before Nov 1, 2026?10¢8,896 vol
  • Will Rock and Roll Hall of Fame and Museum, Inc. complete The Rock & Roll Hall of Fame’s 50,000-square-foot museum expansion in Cleveland, Ohio before Mar 1, 2027?85¢7,625 vol
  • Will Rock and Roll Hall of Fame and Museum, Inc. complete The Rock & Roll Hall of Fame’s 50,000-square-foot museum expansion in Cleveland, Ohio before Dec 1, 2026?30¢7,189 vol

Will Altria Group Inc. report Above 54.5 billion domestic cigare

  • Will Altria Group Inc. report Above 54.5 billion domestic cigarette shipments in 2026?92¢12,763 vol
  • Will Altria Group Inc. report Above 61 billion domestic cigarette shipments in 2026?10¢9,746 vol
  • Will Altria Group Inc. report Above 55 billion domestic cigarette shipments in 2026?91¢7,004 vol
  • Will Altria Group Inc. report Above 60.5 billion domestic cigarette shipments in 2026?20¢4,365 vol
  • Will Altria Group Inc. report Above 55.5 billion domestic cigarette shipments in 2026?85¢4,333 vol
  • Will Altria Group Inc. report Above 57 billion domestic cigarette shipments in 2026?71¢3,746 vol
  • Will Altria Group Inc. report Above 60 billion domestic cigarette shipments in 2026?23¢1,419 vol
  • Will Altria Group Inc. report Above 59.5 billion domestic cigarette shipments in 2026?29¢1,081 vol
  • Will Altria Group Inc. report Above 58.5 billion domestic cigarette shipments in 2026?50¢1,041 vol
  • Will Altria Group Inc. report Above 59 billion domestic cigarette shipments in 2026?39¢983 vol
  • Will Altria Group Inc. report Above 56.5 billion domestic cigarette shipments in 2026?76¢672 vol
  • Will Altria Group Inc. report Above 58 billion domestic cigarette shipments in 2026?58¢558 vol

Will SpaceX run an ad during the Big Game 2027?

  • Will SpaceX run an ad during the Big Game 2027?25¢4,116 vol
  • Will Allstate run an ad during the Big Game 2027?48¢3,407 vol
  • Will Zyn run an ad during the Big Game 2027?11¢3,215 vol
  • Will OpenAI / ChatGPT run an ad during the Big Game 2027?88¢2,885 vol
  • Will DoorDash run an ad during the Big Game 2027?54¢2,870 vol
  • Will Jeep run an ad during the Big Game 2027?42¢2,534 vol
  • Will Amazon Prime run an ad during the Big Game 2027?90¢2,240 vol
  • Will Disney+ run an ad during the Big Game 2027?91¢1,575 vol
  • Will Anthropic / Claude run an ad during the Big Game 2027?70¢1,542 vol
  • Will Nike run an ad during the Big Game 2027?52¢1,446 vol
  • Will Gemini run an ad during the Big Game 2027?86¢1,416 vol
  • Will Spotify run an ad during the Big Game 2027?26¢1,308 vol

Will Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. report Above 4320 total restaur

  • Will Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. report Above 4320 total restaurant count in 2026?97¢4,029 vol
  • Will Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. report Above 110 thousand headcount in fiscal 2026?95¢3,885 vol
  • Will Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. report Above 4300 total restaurant count in 2026?99¢3,831 vol
  • Will Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. report Above 4310 total restaurant count in 2026?98¢2,788 vol
  • Will Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. report Above 4410 total restaurant count in 2026?19¢2,410 vol
  • Will Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. report Above 4400 total restaurant count in 2026?22¢1,688 vol
  • Will Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. report Above 4360 total restaurant count in 2026?88¢1,452 vol
  • Will Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. report Above 4390 total restaurant count in 2026?38¢1,328 vol
  • Will Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. report Above 4380 total restaurant count in 2026?74¢1,056 vol
  • Will Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. report Above 4420 total restaurant count in 2026?16¢1,019 vol
  • Will Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. report Above 4370 total restaurant count in 2026?82¢610 vol
  • Will Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. report Above 108 thousand headcount in fiscal 2026?96¢481 vol

Will Netflix issue layoffs this year?

  • Will Netflix issue layoffs this year?92¢9,676 vol
  • Will NVIDIA issue layoffs this year?11¢4,030 vol
  • Will Alphabet issue layoffs this year?53¢3,322 vol
  • Will Tesla issue layoffs this year?49¢2,224 vol

Will Philip Morris International Inc report Above 11.6 billion z

  • Will Philip Morris International Inc report Above 11.6 billion zyn u.s. shipment volume (pouches) in fiscal 2026?66¢1,601 vol
  • Will Philip Morris International Inc report Above 11.8 billion zyn u.s. shipment volume (pouches) in fiscal 2026?48¢1,124 vol
  • Will Philip Morris International Inc report Above 10.6 billion zyn u.s. shipment volume (pouches) in fiscal 2026?98¢210 vol
  • Will Philip Morris International Inc report Above 12 billion zyn u.s. shipment volume (pouches) in fiscal 2026?33¢197 vol
  • Will Philip Morris International Inc report Above 10.8 billion zyn u.s. shipment volume (pouches) in fiscal 2026?99¢125 vol
  • Will Philip Morris International Inc report Above 11.2 billion zyn u.s. shipment volume (pouches) in fiscal 2026?95¢84 vol
  • Will Philip Morris International Inc report Above 11.4 billion zyn u.s. shipment volume (pouches) in fiscal 2026?85¢73 vol
  • Will Philip Morris International Inc report Above 11 billion zyn u.s. shipment volume (pouches) in fiscal 2026?98¢72 vol

Will Rippling win its lawsuit against Deel?

  • Will Rippling win its lawsuit against Deel?67¢3,172 vol