AI prediction markets

What AI prediction markets are

AI prediction markets are yes-or-no contracts on events in the AI industry. Kalshi describes markets on which large language model will lead by the end of the year ^[1].

What does an AI prediction market ask?

An AI prediction market asks whether an AI event happens, such as a lab holding the top-ranked model, a model release, or an IPO announcement.

Source: ^[2][3][4].

Reading an AI market's price

A Yes price in cents reads as the chance traders give the event. A Yes at 70 cents means about a 70% chance ^[5].

How these markets settle

Each Kalshi AI series names its settlement source in its rules ^[6][7].

What settles the best-AI-model markets?

The LM Arena text leaderboard, with style control removed, settles them. The lab with the top-ranked model on the named date wins.

If two models tie on rank, the higher Arena Score wins, then the model with more votes ^[8].

What settles the Claude release markets?

Anthropic's own website is the settlement source. The market resolves Yes if Anthropic releases the named Claude model before the deadline.

Source: ^[3][7].

What settles the coding-model and app-download markets?

Kalshi's best coding model market settles on LiveBench.ai's Coding Average ranking. Its Gemini app download market settles on figures from Carbon Arc.

Source: ^[9][10].

Which venues list them

Predictmoni's AI board reads Kalshi. Kalshi is regulated by the CFTC as a Designated Contract Market ^[11]. Our notes on prediction market platforms explain how we read Kalshi prices.

Which venue does the AI board read?

Predictmoni's AI board reads Kalshi only. It groups Kalshi's AI series into model releases, lab IPOs, capability and adoption, and app rankings.

Source: ^[12].

What moves the price

Kalshi says a Yes price rises as traders see Yes as more likely, and falls as they see it as less likely ^[13].

What moves a best-AI-model price?

Watch the LM Arena text leaderboard, because that ranking alone decides the result. Only the rank on the named date counts.

Source: ^[6][2].

What moves a release or IPO price?

Word from the company itself. Claude release markets settle on Anthropic's website, and the Anthropic IPO market turns on Anthropic confirming an IPO.

Source: ^[7][4].

Can insiders trade AI markets?

Kalshi's rules forbid it. Anyone holding material non-public information about the event, or working for a named source agency, may not trade the contract.

Source: ^[14].